Saturday, December 10, 2005

Final Four and Winner Prediction

Final Four

It seems CBS flubbed up a bit and showed a promo that shows the next Tribal Council and it appears that Rafe is wearing the Immunity necklace. So I think Lydia will be the next one voted off.

Now that leaves Rafe, Danni and Stephenie in the final three. I don't think Stephenie wins (she hasn't been real sympathetic this time and it is her second chance at a million dollars - two strikes and she's out) so that leaves Rafe or Danni the winner.


The possibilities:

if Rafe wins Immunity
He chooses Stephenie to be in the final two with and wins a million dollars. He's smart and realizes that she is his best choice and he's only promised Danni the final three.

if Danni wins Immunity
Her best choice is Stephenie, however she still may choose Rafe out of her dislike for Stephenie. After she's broken up the Axis of Evil she may feel that she can convince the Jury that she deserves it over Rafe.

if Stephenie wins Immunity
Her best choice would be Danni, however she may select Rafe out of friendship for him or dislike of Danni.


Image Hosted by ImageShack.usMy Prediction

Rafe wins the million dollars!

Also for your consideration, he's the last one left on my Winner's Quotes entry.

Next Update: Sunday morning Final Preview.

Friday, December 09, 2005

Survivor Live: Cindy

Image Hosted by ImageShack.usSurvivor Live: Cindy
Hosts: Dalton Ross and Jenna Morasca.

On Being Voted Off
Cindy said again and again that just because you give someone a car doesn't mean you will win the million dollars, especially with this group who have turned on their own already. Sole Survivor Tina Weston called in and said that she would have given the others a car in exchange for a free pass at a single Tribal Council [now that's how you win a million dollars].

The Others
This group is real cutthroat. They did not like the jungle but Cindy reveled in it.

Rafe is a puppet master and using Stephenie as his messenger. Cindy did not want to leave Rafe and Stephenie together when she won Rewards that's why she picked one or the other to share with.

Cindy doesn't dislike Gary it's just that he started up with her by saying she did not belong in the game and lumping her in with Lydia. Cindy sort of got even by telling the others when Gary was plotting with Lydia. Also Cindy wasn't 'star struck' with Bobby Jon and Stephenie as Gary claimed they all were.

What's Next for Cindy
Going back to the zoo is out, they fired her for going on Survivor. [Assh*les, think of all the free publicity they're missing out on.] She would like to teach and educate people about nature and the environment. Cindy would like to stay in Florida if at all possible.

Notes:
1. Only 1 episode of Survivor Guatemala left: the final is this Sunday (Dec. 11), it will be a 2 hour final with 1 hour reunion.
2. Mon. Dec. 12 Survivor Live with 3rd and 4th place finishers.
3. Tue. Dec. 13 Survivor Live with winner and 2nd place finisher.

Next Updates: Saturday afternoon I'll take a look at the final four. Sunday morning Final Preview.

News Flash: Probst Signs Contract

Survivor host Jeff Probst has signed a contract that will extend his hosting duties another 2 years. Prior to this Survivor 12 was his last under contract.

Survivor 12 is currently shooting in an undisclosed location. It will air in the spring. I plan on blogging it as well: survivor12.blogspot.com .

Thursday, December 08, 2005

Episode 13: See'ya Cindy

Image Hosted by ImageShack.usSee'ya Cindy
official title: Big Win, Big Decision. Big Mistake?

Reminder: the final is this Sunday (Dec. 11).

Summary: Cindy wins a car in the Reward challenge but is voted off at Tribal Council after just missing out on Immunity to Stephenie.

After the re-cap of last week's episode: they all talk about Judd's 'scumbags' and 'I hope you all get bit by a crocodile' comments. In confessional Danni says it looks like there's a break in the alliance (Axis of Evil). Cindy is worried because she sees a pattern: Judd wasn't told that Jaime would be voted off and then Judd himself was voted off. Now Cindy wasn't told that Judd was being voted off, so is she next? Tree mail brings a key, could it be a car key? Yes, it's car-time at Reward Challenge.

Reward Challenge
Competition: Second Chance
Reward: Car and night away from camp.

This challenge repeats parts of previous challenges in three stages.

First Stage, the balance beam - first three move on. The Survivors must make their way across a balance beam and untie things along the way. Cindy, Stephenie and Danni move on.

Second Stage, break tile with throwing club - first two move on. Cindy and Stephenie move on.

Final Stage, puzzle of Maya calendar and ride down hill in cart. Cindy wins Reward!

Jeff Probst now reminds Cindy of the Survivor Car Curse (no one who has won the car has gone on to finish in first). He gives her the option of forgoing the car herself and giving each of the others a car. As she is thinking about it four more cars drive up to the area. After careful consideration, Cindy decides to keep the car for herself. Jeff now says that she can chose one other person to share the night away from camp at a archeological camp with a bar-b-cue. Cindy chooses Stephenie to go with her.

At the Maya archeological camp Stephenie offers a toast to her and Cindy making the final four. They talk strategy and Cindy says she sees Danni as the biggest threat and Stephenie kind of agrees, but she says she will have to check with Rafe regarding voting Danni off. [And here I thought Rafe was Stephenie's pawn, maybe she's his puppet?]

Meanwhile back at camp . . .
Rafe in private says that if he had won Reward then he would of had to give up the car so the others could get one. He also says if she had given him a car then there is no way he would vote for her at tribal Council. Danni also says that she would not have taken the car for herself.

They're back . . . (Cindy and Stephenie)
In front of the others Cindy goes on and on about her new car: I've never had a new car before . . . it handles so nice . . . I hardly felt any bumps in the road . . . it's so nice, like a luxury car. The others are disinterested. In confessional Rafe says that Cindy was grating on everyone. In private Cindy says they all were excited to hear about her new car and they aren't bitter or going to hold it against her [oh, really?].

Stephenie and Rafe are disagreeing over Cindy's choice to keep the car. She says it's the first time they haven't seen eye-to-eye. Lydia chimes in and says that Cindy made the right decision.

Immunity Challenge
Competition: Ropes, Chains and Poles - oh, my!

Each Survivor is in handcuffs and leg irons and tied to a pole. They are also tied to a long rope which winds its way around several other poles. The Survivors must use a big key ring full of ten or so keys to unlock their chains and untangle their ropes at each succeeding pole. The if they have freed up enough rope they can run to their flag and release it to win.

Stephenie takes an early lead and although Cindy givers her a run for it, Stephenie wins Immunity.

Scheming is Free
Rafe to Cindy: 'I want to be in the final four with you.'
Danni: Rafe said that he won't vote for me.
Rafe: Danni said that she wants to be in the final two with me. [That would be an interesting decision for the jury to make.]
Rafe and Stephenie talk about voting Cindy off and she says that she would feel bad since they already turned on Jaime and Judd. Stephenie goes to Cindy and tells her that Rafe sees her as a threat. Cindy says let's vote Rafe off and make it an all girl final four. [Just a little while ago wasn't Cindy saying Danni was the real threat?]

So it looks like Cindy or Rafe at Tribal Council . . .

Xhakum at Tribal Council
Jury watches: Bobby Jon, Jaime, Gary, Judd
(paraphrased, not word for word)

Jeff Probst: Rafe what's the mood like in camp?
Rafe: I feel threatened. There are only guys on the jury and I'm the last guy left in camp.
Jeff Probst: So Danni do you give in to paranoia or stick to your plan?
Danni: I'm just glad to still be here.
Jeff Probst: Cindy I reminded you of the Car Curse and you still chose the car?
Cindy: Yes, there are no guarantees. I could have given them a car and still have been voted off.
Jeff Probst: Cindy who is the most competitive out here?
Cindy: Rafe, he's won challenges already and he's likable. He's the complete package.

Time to Vote:
Cindy is shown voting for Rafe and he her, however he says 'I love you though.' we don't see who Lydia voted for but she says she's voting with the tribe. Jeff shows the council one vote for Rafe and three for Cindy - that's enough.

Cindy is voted off.

Jeff Probst's Final Thought
You made the final four, there are 3 days left, 3 tribal councils and 2 immunity challenges to decide 1 winner.

Cindy's final words:
The thing that I'll miss the most is the sounds of the jungle, nature's orchestra . . . I didn't win the million dollars but the memories are priceless . . . [now that's a classy way to leave Survivor].

Alliances
Is Rafe serious about being in the final two with Danni? His and Danni's best chance for winning is with Stephenie. Lydia would win up against any of them. The three of them should get Lydia off next. She has not crossed anyone on the jury and is a sympathetic figure - single mother of modest means.

Heroes and Villains
Go Danni, go Danni! My preference to win is: Danni or Rafe. Stephenie should not have gotten this far and Lydia has just been carried along.

Won Reward: Cindy (a new car)
Won Immunity: Stephenie
Voted Off: Cindy

Episode 13: As It Airs

As It Airs
Dec. 8, 8:00 pm ET GMT -5 hours
Survivor Guatemala, Episode 13
title: Big Win, Big Decision. Big Mistake?

This post will be updated as Survivor airs tonight.
Some people just can't wait to know what happens on Survivor. If you're one of those people then this post is for you. Note: you may need to hit the refresh/reload button on your browser to see the updates.

First Interview: Danni.

Reward Challenge
Type of Challenge: Second Chance. Cindy won reward.
Reward: Car and luxury night away from camp.
Cindy keeps the car and doesn't give it up for the others. She selects Stephenie to share the Bar-B-Q.

Immunity Challenge
Type of Challenge: More Rope Work. Stephenie won Immunity.

Tribal Council
First Questioned: Rafe. Cindy was voted off.

Check back later tonight
for my usual, full length review / recap.

Ep. 13 Fantasy Picks

Survivor Fantasy League Picks

For what is worth, here are my picks for Survivor Fantasy League.

Rafe, Climbs Ruins.
Danni, Climbs Ruins.
Lydia, Climbs Ruins.
Stephenie, Climbs Ruins.

Cindy is rumored to not only win Reward but also be voted off. I don't think she can make up many points for being voted off so I'm going with the other four, most of who seem to like to climb ruins.

Next Update: Tonight As It Airs, as the show airs and my review afterwards.
(I'm on the East coast of the US, Survivor airs at 8:00 pm ET, GMT -5 hrs.)

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Preview Episode 13

title: Big Win, Big Decision. Big Mistake?
CBS, 8:00 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 8, 2005
Episode #1113.

Only 2 episodes left! The final is this Sunday night (Dec. 11).

from the Survivor web site:
Feeling deceived after a tribemate's ousting, one Survivor confronts the Tribe.

After a big win, one Survivor has a big decision: try and break the "car curse" or risk it all to drive away with a new car.

One Survivor's car decision creates a rift at camp. Will this affect who goes home next?

from Yahoo TV:
One castaway who wins a car must decide whether to believe in the ``car curse.''

Commentary, Predictions and Possible Spoilers
It looks like Cindy wins the Reward challenge and has a choice: either she can have a car or chose to give up the car and let everyone else win a car! What will she do? Remember no one who has won a car has gone on to win the million dollars. It seems Danni wins Immunity (again just beating out Stephenie) and Cindy will be voted off at Tribal Council - remember she was out of the loop last week when Judd was voted off last week.

Next Update: Thursday (around noon ET), my Survivor Fantasy Picks. Also As It Airs as the show airs.

Monday, December 05, 2005

Survivor Live: Judd

Image Hosted by ImageShack.usSurvivor Live: Judd
Hosts: DaltonRoss and Jenna Morasca.

On Being Voted Off
Judd said he got blind-sided by the scum-bags and admits to being a sore loser. That walk from Tribal Council is the worst walk in your life. When Jeff announced that he was voted off Judd just went black and had to be reminded to get his torch. Judd said his bark is worse then his bite.

The Others
Judd never had plans to get rid of Stephenie, he thought they were pretty good friends. Lydia cooked for everyone. Jaime was the brains and Judd was the physical strength. He just didn't get along with Margaret, they had differing personalities - she was always bossing him around. Jeff Probst was just as miserable as the Survivors and Judd felt like Jeff was picking on him at times.

Drinking and Lying
Judd said that he was still drunk when he told the others that the Immunity Idol was on the ground and he doesn't remember seeing Gary following him out into the jungle to look for it [stupid alcohol]. He also mentioned being slightly drunk at a Tribal Council.

Strategy
Judd said his strategy going in was to be needed and wait for the right moment to make an alliance. He said that he was not in an alliance in the first original Nakum tribe and the mix-up of tribes was the best thing that happened to him in the game.

What's Next for Judd
He's still a doorman in Manhattan.

Notes:
1. Only 2 episodes of Survivor Guatemala left: this Thursday and Sunday Dec. 11 will be the 2 hour final with 1 hour reunion.
2. This Friday will be regular Survivor Live.
3. Mon. Dec. 12 Survivor Live with 3rd and 4th place finishers.
4. Tue. Dec. 13 Survivor Live with winner and 2nd place finisher.